Economic Prediction? Might as Well Forecast the Weather

by Anirban Basu 23. April 2014
Recent Weak Data Largely Attributable to Atmospheric Conditions The global economy expanded by a below-average 3 percent last year. The U.S. economy expanded by less than 2 percent, though the latter half of the year was much better than the first. The U.S. economy expanded at a 4.1 percent annualized pace during the third quarter (more than a third of that was due to inventory accumulation) and then followed up that performance with 2.6 percent growth during the fourth. That means that durin... [More]

Let There be the End of the Tunnel

by Anirban Basu 24. January 2014
The U.S. economy had been stuck at 2 percent growth for several years and throughout much of 2013. Imagine a sports car with incredible get up and go, but one that had to constantly negotiate a series of speed bumps that permit it to only travel between 30 and 40 miles per hour. To complete the analogy, that translates into sub-par economic growth and an unemployment rate still hovering around 7 percent after more than 4 years of economic recovery. However, the outlook for 2014 is as positive ... [More]

Out of the Frying Pan, into the Fire

by Anirban Basu 16. January 2013
U.S. Avoids Fiscal Cliff but Familiar Challenges Remain With the noteworthy exception of the nation’s still expanding national debt, 2012 will be viewed by economic historians as predominantly a year of progress. Financial markets performed, the number of jobs expanded, unemployment fell, auto sales surged, housing prices stabilized and consumers were active. According to the most recently revised estimate supplied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, national gross domestic product expan... [More]

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