Economy Still Recovering from Frigid Winter

by Anirban Basu 8. August 2014
The winter of 2013/14 was brutal. Construction starts were delayed. Merchandise sat idly at ports. Consumers stayed indoors and local government budgets were hammered by snow removal costs. For roughly three months, forward economic momentum was stymied. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. economy contracted at a 2.9 percent pace during the year’s initial quarter. For a time, economists debated whether or not first quarter weakness was attributable to the weather or... [More]

Economic Prediction? Might as Well Forecast the Weather

by Anirban Basu 23. April 2014
Recent Weak Data Largely Attributable to Atmospheric Conditions The global economy expanded by a below-average 3 percent last year. The U.S. economy expanded by less than 2 percent, though the latter half of the year was much better than the first. The U.S. economy expanded at a 4.1 percent annualized pace during the third quarter (more than a third of that was due to inventory accumulation) and then followed up that performance with 2.6 percent growth during the fourth. That means that durin... [More]

Let There be the End of the Tunnel

by Anirban Basu 24. January 2014
The U.S. economy had been stuck at 2 percent growth for several years and throughout much of 2013. Imagine a sports car with incredible get up and go, but one that had to constantly negotiate a series of speed bumps that permit it to only travel between 30 and 40 miles per hour. To complete the analogy, that translates into sub-par economic growth and an unemployment rate still hovering around 7 percent after more than 4 years of economic recovery. However, the outlook for 2014 is as positive ... [More]

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